GLMAC 5-Year Work Plan 

In order to guide the longer-term operation of the GLMAC, a 5-year work plan is being developed that will identify the key functions of GLMAC and the resources that will be needed to ensure its operation over the longer-term. Ideally the work plan will represent the GLMAC Steering Committee's concensus opinion on critical future tasks and operational requirements to initiate, maintain and operate the integrated model clearinghouse for the region. This work plan will identify staff requirements, suggested operational characteristics, and hardware/software needs.

The GLMAC work plan will build upon the 5-Year work plan that has been developed for the GLOS Modeling and Assessment Subsystem (attached as a document or you may DOWNLOAD HERE).

DRAFT 3.0 for DISCUSSION (Download Word Version Here)

GLMAC Goals and Vision

Initiated in 2008, the Great Lakes Modeling and Assessment Center (GLMAC) intends to provide a virtual and networked environment for researchers, resource managers, policy developers and others to share expertise and to better define observational requirements to support both process and predictive modeling development and application in the Great Lakes basin.   

It is envisioned that the GLMAC will be the place to go as a starting point for Great Lakes related modeling information and in fact to find and utilize a range of operational models, or to access real-time and historical data that these models produce. Much like the Great Lakes Information Network (GLIN) serves as a starting point for those seeking a range of information on the Great Lakes in general, GLMAC can serve as portal for all related Great Lakes modeling information for both the professional modeling community as well as the user groups that utilize Great Lakes model output in making day to day decisions. 

GLMAC is envisioned as a an entity that will assist in bringing people together to develop the tools required to address Great Lakes modeling needs and will facilitate and coordinate the development of models and model output that utilize new and updated data being gathered by new and improved data sensors and collection mechanisms being deployed throughout the lakes.  GLMAC can also serve a role in providing a conduit for the transition of models from the research and development phase to the semi-operational phase and finally to the operational phase. 

GLMAC will provide a set of networked tools, resources and development space to support collaborative development and implementation of modeling and assessment tools as well as coordinated access to the fundamental observational data required by the models. For many applications, multiple discrete models are involved and must be integrated through linkages and couplings. GLMAC will help facilitate this integration of models, data, and assessment activities.   

Through review of initial work plan documentation and discussion, a number of initial goals for GLMAC have been identified and include:

•  Become a coordinative body through which modelers can share and develop tools, resources, and knowledge to support the development and implementation of regional policies dealing with pressing environmental and economic development issues.  
• Assist and facilitate the integration of new data sets and new data types being collected throughout the Great Lakes basin by other subsystem teams within the GLOS-RA and coordinate modification of existing models and development of new models that can utilize these new data sets. Conversely, work closely with other subsystem teams to identify data gaps and data needs for existing operational and semi-operational models, so that this may drive new sensor deployment or improve methods for collecting data. 
• Assist in the facilitation, integration and development of models, data, and assessment activities and provide a forum for integrating discrete model output with other data and information to develop assessments and scenario forecasts for Integrated Environmental Assessments. 
• Foster better collaboration among a range of partners engaged in integrating Great Lakesinformation through models. This can include the coordination of modelers in the region to identify common needs, and develop interoperability standards.  
• Become a "clearinghouse" of sorts and develop an inventory of models, modeling tools and related resources. This inventory will provide a catalogue and thorough documentation of software, datasets and techniques that can be employed in developing integrated modeling products for GLOS.  
• Integrate the efforts of partnering organizations to collect and manage Great Lakes data and employ models to answer pertinent scientific questions to address the seven Societal Goals of the GLOS-RA (Improve climate change forecasts, improve safety of marine operations, mitigate natural hazards, improve homeland security, reduce public health risks, protect and restore coastal ecosystems, and enable sustained use of marine resources). 

In discussing the above goals and objectives with the GLOS and GLMAC participants to date and with other Great Lakesmodeling experts over the course of 2008, two other longer term goals or functions of GLMAC were suggested. 

First, it was suggested that there are already plenty of individuals and agencies developing models to address the key GLOS societal goals and issue and that new model development should notbe a role of GLMAC. Instead it was felt that GLMAC could be of most benefit by using the initial inventory of models conducted to help identify the gaps in those models, and then develop a plan to help fill in those gaps.  

Secondly, relative to the types of models being developed and used to address the key issue areas, it was suggested that the GLMAC focus be on those operational models that have the opportunity to provide key Great Lakes user groups with critical information needed to help them make important decisions in their day-to-day activities.  As an example, better access to real-time wave, current, storm and water level forecasts for ship captains and recreational boaters, or timely access to real-time contaminant or hazardous spill response modeling data for municipal engineers and planners relative to water intake operation.

Proposed GLMAC Activities, 2009-2013

Over the next five years it will be important for GLMAC to focus on further developing and refining the inventory of models (currently being developed) to add and improve those operational models that specifically address the GLOS societal goals and that will get end users the data and information required. This will require a variety of tasks that are designed to identify the gaps that exist in the inventory, or in the type of data required to feed these models and then tasks that serve to develop and implement a plan to fill such gaps.   

The ability to complete the suggested tasks is of course dependent on the levels of funding that come to GLMAC via grant proposals and other sources. In this regard, at present, it can reasonably be expected that funding for the first two years of the proposed 5 year plan, will be commensurate with funding that has already been received via completed grant proposals. As such, focus during the first two years will need to continue on building the model inventory and identifying the gaps as there will not be enough funding to support any kind of model development or improvement.  Anticipating higher funding levels in Years 3-5, focus then can be on additional model development and refinement required to fill any gaps that are identified.  

Years 1-2
Expand and Formalize the GLMAC Steering CommitteeIn the establishment of the GLOS-RA a modeling "Subsystem Team" was established and has been serving as the de facto "Steering Committee" for GLMAC during its first year of activities. A small number of these subsystem team members have been participating in GLMAC conference calls and providing comment on activities as required. Despite this participation, there is currently very little knowledge of GLMAC outside of this small group of people and thus, there is a significant need to expand the GLMAC "membership" and bring more individuals on board so as to foster a broader outreach to the modeling community.  In this regard it is proposed that the GLMAC Steering Committee be more formally established with a panel of 10-12 highly involved and committed individuals and that one or two of these individuals be assigned leadership roles on the committee (e.g. Chair and Vice-Chair).   

Refine Model/Tools/Output/Resource InventoryWork should continue in each year to build upon and refine the model inventory initiated in year one. Additional information can be added under each model in a collaborative format using the GLMAC Wiki site that has been set up on the Great Lakes Commission Confluence Site. GLMAC staff/contractor (see Resources below) will continue to liaise closely with the GLMAC Steering Committee and the GLOS Modeling and Assessment Subsystem Team, via regular conference calls or meetings to ensure that existing models are being included and that new models are also incorporated.  

Gap Identification
A key task will be to identify "gaps" and then work toward filling those gaps.  Such gaps may include for example: 

• specific models that are desired but do not yet exist;
• gaps in the output of existing models that does not address a GLOS societal goal but could with modifications;
• gaps in existing models or the output of existing models that do not address the needs of the Great Lakes user groups;
• gaps in data required to run a specific model; or
• gaps in "geographical" application (i.e., running a model that has been used successfully in one site-specific location in a number of others to test whether it can be accurate on a basin-wide basis) 

Initial focus on modeling gaps will be on four of the key User Needs Groups (GLOS Societal Goals) including safe navigation, public health, climate change and ecosystems/food webs. Figures 1-4 at the end of this document present flow diagrams that show each of these four GLOS subject areas and the relationships that exist between user needs, observational requirements, sensor solutions, products that need to be developed and the impacts that can be expected for each.  The color coding under the Sensor Solutions component refers to the current state of these items with green implying items that are currently operational, yellow implying work in progress, red implying no work underway and thus identifying what items GLOS could be tasked or funded to implement.  In conducting the gap analysis for GLMAC activities, it is envisioned that the same approach could be applied to the modeling/analysis levels in order to define where there is a shortfall in model development and then identify and prioritize which modeling activities could be carried out in Years 3-5 of the plan. 

Identification of gaps will be carried out through close liaison with GLMAC Steering Committee members and others involved in Great Lakes modeling efforts.  GLMAC staff/contractor should also seek to conduct regular interviews (e.g., focus groups, surveys or seminars) with representatives of the various Great Lakesuser groups to identify the types of data and model output they require for their day-to-day decision making. 

In identifying gaps, it will also be important for GLMAC to liaise closely with other subsystem teams within the GLOS-RA, especially those related to new sensor deployment and new data collection.  Given that the types of models that already exist and the type of data they require may be helpful in designing observing networks or in developing new sensors for data collection, and conversely, that new types of data may spur new model development, it will be important for these groups to work closely together on this activity. 

Develop Pilot Projects
In order to better illustrate the longer term functionality of GLMAC it will be beneficial to establish and present two or three "pilot projects" that illustrate the process involved and the benefits that can be provided through GLMAC.  Examples might include model development that is already happening and that is moving ahead without GLMAC, but for which GLMAC can then add something of value (e.g., collaboration from a broader audience of modelers or user groups, integration of new sensor data, more informed decision making by end users of model output, etc.) and showcase as future examples.   These pilot projects could also provide some specific focus to the annual workshops (see below) and a starting point to begin to get more people engaged in the activity.  The charts presented in Figures 1-4 are perhaps a good starting point for selecting potential pilot projects as they highlight sensor and model solutions that already exist, as well as those that have limited implementation and perhaps may benefit most from GLMAC involvement. 

Years 3-5
Building on the above, GLMAC staff will need to prioritize which "gaps" need to be addressed (as discussed above) and then develop and implement plans for doing so.  This prioritization of activities will be done primarily in Years 1 and 2 but can also continue on a continuing basis as new information becomes available. Many of the actual modeling tasks required to fill the gaps won't be taken on by GLMAC staff/contractor or GLOS, but by a partnering agency, an academic institution, and/or another organization either under separate programs or through contracts established with the GLMAC or the GLOS Regional Association.  As such it is envisioned that GLMAC staff will play a key coordinating role here and be responsible for such activities as developing terms of reference and requests for proposals for high-priority tasks, developing cooperative agreements with other government agencies, managing the overall GLMAC budget and individual contract budgets, and integration of task output and results into the GLMAC information framework. 

Annual GLMAC Workshop
The GLMAC should sponsor and host a yearly Modeling Workshop. Individuals and organizations that worked on GLMAC activities throughout the year would be asked to attend and present their progress and results. The workshop would also be designed to assist in identifying gaps that still remain and that need to be addressed as priorities for the coming year. 

There are two suggested venues for this workshop both of which are tied into other major meeting events. First, it is suggested that this workshop be held as a separate stand-alone event in a full day session prior to the GLOS Annual Meeting so that a higher level of focus can be placed on discussion of GLMAC issues and priorities (i.e. as opposed to a breakout session within the meeting). Second, it is proposed that the workshop be tied in as a one-day pre-conference workshop with the annual International Association of Great Lakes Research (IAGLR) Conference, which would allow for attendance by a broader range of the Great Lakes science, engineering and modeling community.   

Potential Dates, Locations and Themes 

May 2009 - Ann Arbor, MI - If You Build it They Will Come - Initial Model Inventory and Gap Assessment: Initial workshop to focus on state of existing inventory and identification of initial gaps that need to be filled. Also on development of Pilot Projects. 

May 2010 - Milwaukee,WI- Integration: Explore broader integration of GLMAC with GLOS, IOOS, etc. Continue identifying and filling gaps as needed. Address other GLOS Societal Goals as needed. 

May 2011 - Buffalo, NY - The Halftime Show: Highlights of where GLMAC has come from and where it is going. Continue identifying and filling gaps as needed. Address other GLOS Societal Goals as needed. Continue building on themes of integration, etc. 

May 2012 - Chicago, IL - Outreach and Education - Getting the Message Out: Assuming that the GLMAC is now starting to develop a life of its own (comprehensive inventory of models, fewer gaps, a solid user base), perhaps a focus on a broader plan for marketing and promoting its existence? 

May 2013 - Ann Arbor, MI - What's Next? GLMAC and the Next Five Years.: Focus on developing the strategy and work plan for the next five years of operation. 

Resources 

Staff
With funding levels for the first two years of the five year workplan anticipated to be similar to that received in 2007-2008, GLMAC will not be able to support a full time staff resource, but would be in a position to have a contract resource serve in a coordinative capacity in order to maintain the momentum that has been developed and to continue building the model inventory and coordinating the gap identification. 

With anticipated increased levels in funding in Years 3-5, it is proposed that GLMAC consider one full time staff resource to assist with GLMAC activities outlined above. This could be a full time staff person hired through the Great Lakes Commission, or alternatively a contractor hired through the GLOS RA. It is recommended that this staff resource be based at the offices of the Great Lakes Commission in Ann Arbor, so as to be central to the wealth of Great Lakes modeling expertise including the Great Lakes Environmental Research Lab, as well as various academic institutions, federal, state and provincial agencies and private sector companies located in the Great Lakes basin.  The staff resource should be well versed in the full range of modeling activities carried out in the Great Lakes basin and should have experience in developing terms of reference and requests for proposals, as well as in contract and budget management.  This full time staff resource could also be assisted as needed and as budget allows, by a co-op or summer student staff. 

Technical and Clerical
No new clerical, technical or IT staff are anticipated. This will be provided via the contract resource in Years 1-2 and in Years 3-5, the GLMAC staff (given the proposed location at the GLC offices) can utilize existing GLC staff for technical and clerical support as required.   

Computing Resources
Both the contract resource and the proposed staff resource in Year 3-5 will continue to need access to the GLMAC web site and collaborative WIKI site. These already sit on the GLC "Confluence" web server and it is anticipated that this will be adequate to support the evolution of the GLMAC site for the full five years of the workplan. 

In Year 3-5, the proposed GLMAC staff person will require access to one full computer workstation, network, internet and print capabilities.  It is anticipated that this can be provided through the addition of a computer to the existing GLC network infrastructure.   

Budget
An estimated budget is presented in the table below for the next five years. The numbers reflect the reality of existing funding grants as well as proposed amounts that have been previously put forth in various GLOS and RCOOS Grant Proposals. 

It is anticipated that funding in Year 1 and 2 will be commensurate with that received in 2008-2009, with perhaps a slight increase in this for Year 2 (2009-2010).  Requests for additional funds, to the tune of approximately $200,000 per year, will be made for Years 3 and 5 in the hopes of coordinating and administering modeling activities that are designed to fill the gaps identified in Years 1-2.